Already ahead of underwriting. Still priced like the average.
Blue Pearl fills far better than its peers at a mid-market rate. The headroom is rate, not occupancy.
Below is how we would underwrite it today, what the data shows, and the plan we would run from here.
~$124K
Year-one run-rate rental revenue, ex cleaning
$136K to $149K
Near-term case pricing changes only
$149K to $161K
Mature case higher rate, fewer nights
$976
Thanksgiving ADR booked 147 days out
The opportunity
Clearing ~$106K before a dollar of cleaning fees.
Jun to Oct 2026 produced $66,276 of rental revenue at 82% occupancy and a $530 ADR.
Rolled forward 12 months, that is about 250 nights, 68% occupancy, a $497 ADR and roughly $124K.
A $497 ADR is essentially the market-wide $500 across all listing sizes. A unique oceanfront 3BR earning the average rate is the clearest sign of headroom.
Case
Nights
ADR
Rental revenue
Year-one view
~250
$497
~$124K
Near-term
~250
+10% to 20%
$136K to $149K
Mature
230
$650 to $700
$149K to $161K
Why these ranges. Moving base to the 3BR median alone is a 24% increase, and fill to date shows no resistance at current levels.
The mature case settles to the 63% market occupancy near the 3BR 75th percentile ($699), taking RevPAR1 from about $340 to $410 to $440.
It earns more on fewer nights: about 57 turnovers a year versus about 66 today. Less wear, fewer cleans, better owner net.
Year-one view: Jun to Oct actuals, Nov and Dec on the books ($21,807), Jan at market occupancy and the $473 ADR on the books, Feb to May at market occupancy with the $412 base as a proxy ADR.
Rental revenue excludes cleaning, so we cannot restate it on your gross basis (incl cleaning, ex TOT) until we have the fee schedule.
What the data shows
Guests will pay near $1K for a Blue Pearl holiday.
Thanksgiving booked at a $976 ADR, 147 days out.
Then New Year's (Dec 31 to Jan 3) booked at $707, below the 3BR 90th percentile of $867, while the market's top band ran about $900 to $1,100.
Christmas week booked at $557 to $648. Illustrative only: at the 3BR p90, Dec 21 to Jan 3 would be $11,271 versus $8,050 today, about $3,200 more.
Comparable 3BR houses, AirDNA, last 12 months
Set
ADR
Occ
Annual
Blue Pearl, year-one view
$497
~68%
~$124K
Bodega Bay submarket (covers Jenner)
$515
53%
$84K
Bodega Bay, upscale and luxury
$611
52%
$92K
Sea Ranch
$519
60%
$96K
Sea Ranch, upscale and luxury
$538
60%
$99K
Rentalizer, 23280 Hwy 1 (comp strength Low)
$579
43%
$90.4K
AirDNA's luxury breakout averages an $810 ADR, and top true oceanfront comps run about $1,000 to $1,100. We treat the Rentalizer as a rough floor, not a target.
Underpriced
Full and cheap
Base $412 vs a 3BR median of $509. October filled to 97% at $470. Sat vs Tue spread is only about $80. The forward calendar sits mostly in the market's 25th to 50th percentile band.
Neutral
Lead time is normal
Median 69 days, in line with comparable 3BR houses (60 to 70 days). It is not evidence of underpricing on its own. A quiet two weeks on far-out dates is not a reason to discount.
Opportunity
Zero Booking.com
Airbnb carries 87% of nights and all 9 cancellations. Vrbo produced 2 stays. Booking.com is a growing channel and should be leveraged.
The lever plan
One lever at a time, so we can read the result.
Protect the peaks. Dynamic floors for 2027 holidays and peak weekends that track market p90 and move with demand. Reviewed as dates approach, never set once.
Mark up, then discount on purpose. Raise list prices, then opt into Airbnb and Vrbo promotions and OTA programs so guests see a deal, the listing gets the visibility boost, and net ADR still rises. Keep last-minute and recency discounts, re-tuned from the higher price.
Step up the base. $412 toward the $509 median in steps of roughly 5% to 8%, then toward the 75th percentile ($699) only if pace supports it.
Shape the week and the stay. Wider Fri/Sat premium. Min-stay and gap rules so orphans sell.
Price for lead time. Higher far out, easing as check-in approaches, instead of discounting late.
Fix what pricing cannot. Photos, Booking.com, conversion, channel mix and fees.
Hot tub
A clear yes. Do it alongside the pricing work.
An estimated 2% to 4% a year in revenue (Pacer's estimate), paying for itself in a year or two.
It matters most Feb to May, where market occupancy sits in the 50s. At about 250 nights, every $10 of nightly premium is about $2,500 a year.
The first 90 days
What we would do, and when we decide.
Days 0 to 30
Reorder photos now. Wide cliffside beach lounge shot as hero. Oceanfront deck dining (photo 8 of 74) into the top 5. Replace or reshoot the soft current hero at golden hour.
Lead the title and description with the private beach path.
Holiday floors at market p90. New Year's 2027 no lower than $867.
Raise list prices, then opt into channel promotions and OTA programs.
First base step: $412 to about $440 (about 7%), then read for two weeks.
Start Booking.com setup and hot tub scoping.
Gap and min-stay rules for open Nov and Dec blocks, not broad discounting.
Days 31 to 90
Second base step toward $509 if push triggers hold.
Widen the weekend premium. Bring Booking.com live and align Vrbo.
Review fees and direct pricing. Finalize the tiered comp set.
Set 2027 seasonality with Jul $602 and Sep $622 as the floor, not the target.
90-day readout: keep, adjust or roll back each change.
Cadence: weekly 30-minute review of the next 90 days, one push, hold or back-off decision every two weeks, monthly comp set and test readout.
What PriceLabs access can't show us
Pricing is one layer. Full optimization needs the rest.
PriceLabs shows where price sits and how guests book. It does not show the full revenue management strategy, so we cannot confirm Blue Pearl is fully optimized from PriceLabs alone.
Channel promotions
Airbnb and Vrbo promotions, early-bird and length-of-stay discounts, and whether they stack with PriceLabs rules.
Fee-to-rent ratios
Guests on 2-night stays pay on average 1.58x the rent. $963 of rent became $1,637.66 at checkout.
Cleaning fees
We cannot split cleaning, platform fees and taxes from the export, which also blocks a like-for-like read on your $106K.
Discount stacking
An early-bird stacked on a weekly discount can quietly erase a base increase.
Conversion
Views, click-through and booking conversion by channel. High views with low conversion means the listing, not the price.
Owner economics
Management terms, cleaning cost and direct costs that turn gross into owner net.
Let's work through it together.
For our session: read access to PriceLabs and Hospitable, the Airbnb and Vrbo dashboards, the fee schedule, owner terms, and what the original $106K model assumed.